Not Financial, Legal, or Tax Advice — No Liability Accepted
This is an educational research tool. The figures, scores, and recommendations are estimates generated from data you enter and from publicly published research and federal statistics. They are not personalized financial, legal, tax, or housing-counseling advice and must not be relied on for a decision of this magnitude. Before taking any action — especially selling, refinancing, defaulting, declaring bankruptcy, accepting forbearance, or signing with a short-sale or investor buyer — consult a HUD-approved housing counselor (free), a licensed attorney in your state, and your loan servicer directly. POSTADS, its operators, affiliates, and contributors accept no liability for any decision, loss, damage, missed deadline, foreclosure outcome, credit consequence, or other harm arising from use of this tool. Use is entirely at your own risk. As an interactive computer service that displays information provided by you, the user, protection under 47 U.S.C. § 230(c) and applicable state analogues is asserted. By using this calculator you acknowledge and accept these terms.
Research-Based Decision Model · No Login

Foreclosure Avoidance Decision Model.

Enter your financial situation and receive a data-driven urgency score — from Hold to Sell Now. Derived from CFPB, Urban Institute, Fannie Mae, and ATTOM research data.

← Back to Neighborhood Sales
S = Sell-Now Score  (0 = Hold, 1 = Sell Immediately)
S = 0.26·R + 0.20·L + 0.14·(U×C) + 0.06·J + 0.17·D + 0.17·E − |F|
RReserve Risk = 1 − (Savings ÷ TotalMonthly) ÷ 12 — 12+ months runway = 0 risk. Capped at 0.35 when employed and current (savings is a buffer, not a burn-down).
LLTV Risk = max(0, (Mortgage ÷ HomeValue − 0.9) ÷ 0.2) — Fires only above 90% LTV (near-underwater leverage cliff). Below 90% = 0 risk.
U×CUnemployment Pressure = (MonthsUnemployed ÷ 12) × (1 − Confidence%) — Duration modulated by recovery confidence
JJob Insecurity Baseline = (1 − Confidence%) × 0.65 — Fragility even before job loss occurs
DDelinquency Risk = min(1, MissedPmts÷3 + (Days≥60 ? 0.35 : Days≥45 ? 0.18 : 0)) — 60-day credit cliff penalty
EEquity Buffer Risk = max(0, min(1, (0.20 − Equity%) ÷ 0.30)) — Zero risk above 20% equity (comfortable sale). Climbs as equity nears zero; max when underwater.
FForbearance Relief = −0.08 × (12 − MonthsUsed) ÷ 12 — Subtracted from S. Zero when 12/12 months exhausted (no protection remaining).
Weights derived from: CFPB equity study (2022), Urban Institute forbearance research, Fannie Mae foreclosure timeline data, ATTOM pre-foreclosure statistics
Input Variables
Used to fetch local BLS unemployment rate for the time-to-default estimate.
Total household take-home pay after taxes. Required for net burn-rate calculation.
Optional. Credit cards, car loans, student loans — excluding the mortgage above.
Use a recent appraisal or comp. Affects LTV and equity calculations.
Enter 0 if currently employed.
How confident are you in finding comparable income? Also factors into job insecurity score even if currently employed.
Critical: ≥45 days applies a credit-cliff warning; ≥60 days triggers 7-year credit reporting.
Currently using mortgage forbearance
Active CARES Act or lender forbearance reduces urgency — sliding scale based on months remaining.
of 12 max
Sell Urgency Score
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/ 100

Recommended Next Steps

Run the equation above to see personalized action steps based on your cash-flow situation.

Select your state above to load local BLS labor-market data used in the time-to-default estimate.
Risk Factor Breakdown
Cash Runway
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Before savings depleted
Loan-to-Value
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Home Equity
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Research Basis
  • 94% of mortgage defaults follow income loss (Urban Institute / NBER)
  • 81% of homeowners in active foreclosure had ≥10% equity — selling first protects it (CFPB, Q3 2022)
  • Pre-foreclosure to full foreclosure averages 12–18 months; selling early prevents 7-year credit damage
  • Forbearance programs reduced foreclosures; 6–12 month window is typical (CARES Act research)
  • Foreclosures from job loss account for ~35% of all cases; acting before 60-day delinquency is critical
  • LTV > 100% (underwater) strongly predicts strategic default regardless of income (Fannie Mae research)
Research Tool — No Liability Accepted All figures are estimates derived from data you entered and publicly available research. Nothing on this page is financial, legal, tax, or housing-counseling advice and must not be relied upon for any decision of this magnitude. POSTADS, its operators, and affiliates accept no liability for any outcome arising from use of this tool. Before acting, consult a HUD-approved housing counselor (free), a licensed attorney in your state, and your loan servicer directly. As an interactive computer service displaying information you provide, this tool asserts protection under 47 U.S.C. § 230(c) (Communications Decency Act).